The Montaigne Institute, a prominent French research center, published a new study titled "France – Algeria: Scenarios for overcoming emotion" on its website on the 10th of this month. This full study delves into the complex dynamics of the bilateral relationship between France and Algeria, proposing three distinct policy options for France to consider moving forward. The report meticulously identifies several key areas of concern for France within this relationship, specifically noting migration, economic relations, and deeply rooted issues of memory and identity, with particular emphasis on the role and status of the French language. The institute's analysis aims to provide a framework for navigating what it describes as an emotionally charged and often challenging diplomatic landscape.
Key Areas of Bilateral Concern
Migration stands out as a significant aspect of the relationship. Algeria is the country whose nationals obtain more residence permits than any other in France, showing the substantial human connections between the two nations. In 2024 alone, Algerian nationals received a notable 650,000 residence permits in France. This movement is facilitated by a specific bilateral instrument: a 1968 agreement that establishes a special system governing the movement, work, and residence of Algerian citizens and their families in France. This agreement has long been a cornerstone of the legal framework for Algerian immigration to France, setting it apart from other non-EU nationalities.
Economically, the trade volume between France and Algeria reached 11 billion euros in 2024. Despite this substantial figure, the study notes that this level of trade remains lower than France's commercial exchanges with either Morocco or Tunisia, indicating potential for growth or a shift in regional economic priorities. A significant portion of this trade is concentrated in the energy sector; fossil fuels, specifically hydrocarbons, constitute more than half of the total trade volume between the two nations. These fossil fuel imports represent about 90 percent of French imports from Algeria, noting France's reliance on Algerian energy resources. In the broader economic landscape, France also faces increasing competition from other global players such as Italy, China, and Turkey in its economic relationship with Algeria, reflecting a diversification of Algeria's international trade partners.
Culturally, the position of the French language has experienced a notable decline in Algeria. This shift is attributed to national policies of Arabization, which prioritize Arabic, and the growing prominence of English within the Algerian educational system and public sphere. This evolving linguistic landscape is particularly evident in recent educational reforms: starting from the new academic year, English has advanced to the third year of primary education in Algeria, while French has been relegated to the fourth year, signaling a strategic reorientation in language instruction.
Proposed Scenarios for Policy
The Montaigne Institute’s study outlines three potential policy approaches for France to consider in its dealings with Algeria. The first scenario suggests France continues its current policy towards Algeria. However, the report indicates that this approach has not effectively resolved the underlying fundamental problems that characterize the bilateral relationship, suggesting a need for re-evaluation.
A second proposed scenario involves a more drastic measure: a rupture in relations, where France would unilaterally abrogate the 1968 agreement. The institute issues a strong warning regarding this option, cautioning that such an action could precipitate a severe diplomatic crisis between the two countries, one that would be exceptionally challenging to overcome and could have broad implications for both nations.
Algeria, for its part, views the 1968 agreement as a critical red line in its relationship with France. This stance is rooted in Algeria's perception of the agreement as a direct extension of the Evian Agreements, which formally ended the Algerian War of Independence and established the framework for post-colonial relations. Therefore, any unilateral abrogation by France would likely be seen by Algeria as a profound breach of historical and diplomatic trust.
The third scenario presented by the Montaigne Institute is termed "de-escalation." This approach advocates for a more reserved and measured strategy in managing relations between the two countries, emphasizing a reduction in tensions and a more pragmatic engagement. The study ultimately recommends adopting this third scenario. This preferred path is designed to combine elements from both the first and second options, seeking a balanced approach. Specifically, it involves discontinuing the application of the 1968 agreement, thereby addressing some French concerns, while simultaneously maintaining an essential openness for convergence and cooperation, particularly in key economic and geopolitical spheres. This nuanced strategy aims to foster a more stable and constructive relationship without resorting to outright confrontation.
Context and Past Challenges
The study's release comes amid ongoing debates within France regarding its foreign policy, particularly concerning its former colonies. Some French far-right presidential candidates, such as Marine Le Pen, have consistently advocated for a tougher and more assertive stance in relations with Algeria, reflecting a segment of public opinion that seeks a more confrontational approach.
The Montaigne Institute's study also acknowledges the failure of President Emmanuel Macron's initiative on memory issues. This initiative, launched with the aim of addressing historical grievances and fostering reconciliation between the two nations, ultimately did not achieve its intended objectives, noting the deep-seated sensitivities surrounding colonial history. Additionally, the report explicitly notes that the differing positions on the Western Sahara issue have previously caused an unprecedented crisis between France and Algeria, demonstrating how regional geopolitical matters can significantly strain their bilateral ties.